Hadi Parvizi

The thesis

Uncertainty is the raw material. Conviction is the product.

The next decade's most valuable projects sit where deep uncertainty meets patient capital: the energy that powers economies and the medicine that repairs people.

I look for the few that can change their field, prove them with mathematics, and build the structure that lets capital commit. I read every project against the macro cycle, watching where the world's largest allocators move before choosing where to build.

One hundred futures for one project, resolved into a single curve a board can act on. Illustrative redraw of Figure 7 in Parvizi et al., Energies 2018, 11(1), 218 (CC BY), built from the paper's equations and input ranges.

Measure. Forecast. Price.

The method began as a doctorate: three linked inventions that start with messy geology and end with one number an investor can use.

Measure

One ratio per well that captures how far the rock departs from the model. It joins two measurements that had always been read apart.
Forecast

A production forecast corrected by that ratio. It takes minutes, matches full simulation, and works where no current model exists.
Price

The probability that the project loses money. On the field studied the answer was 20%, consistent with its record: one well in five had failed.

3D reservoir simulation model

How the work is done

Four things I do for a decision that matters

Model the uncertainty

Complex physical and economic systems, quantified rather than debated.

150+ development scenarios for one gas investment decision, each with its own 200 uncertainty runs.

Price the decision

Decision science that says what a piece of information is worth before anyone pays for it.

$250M+ of value moved by one new evaluation method in a cross-border negotiation.

Align the capital

Boards, partners and sponsors agreeing on numbers that are honestly uncertain.

7 joint-venture partners aligned around one giant field; $600M+ raised from institutional investors.

Build the system

Ventures designed whole: regulation, operations, governance, capital and data, in the right order.

High-capital energy start-ups and multi-vehicle health ecosystems taken from blank page to investable.

Where I work

Two domains, one discipline

Energy

Two decades turning subsurface uncertainty into investment decisions across the North Sea, North Africa, the Middle East and Southeast Asia.

Field development and acquisition decisions, valued under uncertainty
Mature-asset optimisation and benchmarking against the best performers
High-capital oil and gas start-ups in the MEA region, from blank page to investable: structure, licences, governance, team and first-asset screening

Health

Health ventures designed as complete systems, evidence-led from the first page.

Architect of a regenerative-medicine ecosystem linking the Middle East and the UK: foundation, cell bank, institute, innovation fund and digital spine
Foundations and independent advisory councils for health legacy projects
Co-founder of a specialist polyclinic in the MEA region

AI, underneath both

I use AI every day on real capital decisions, and I advise organisations on doing the same. One example: a reservoir workbook joining material balance, fluid uncertainty, experimental design and per-well recovery, built and checked in about 40 minutes, solving 36,000 calculation points instantly. The roots go back fifteen years, to published work on genetic algorithms and machine optimisation.

For leadership teams: an executive vision workshop, then a transformation plan built on open models and on the ideas your own people already have.

Selected outcomes

Six decisions that moved capital

Africa · gas

A method that moved a negotiation

Challenge: Two parties sharing a giant gas complex could not agree how much gas lay on each side.
Method: A new way to evaluate gas in place that both technical teams could test.
Value: $250M+ shifted in the settlement.

North Africa · oil

Seven partners, one plan

Challenge: A giant field of 110+ wells producing 50,000+ barrels a day, with seven owners and seven views.
Method: Reservoir leadership that put every proposal through the same uncertainty test.
Value: 10M+ barrels of projected recovery added by one infill campaign.

North Sea · gas

150 scenarios before a single well

Challenge: Whether to spend on a pilot hole and new seismic before committing to development.
Method: 150+ development scenarios, each carrying its own 200 uncertainty runs: some 30,000 simulated futures, then decision trees and Value-of-Information analysis.
Value: A spending decision the joint venture formally recognised.

Europe · capital

Institutional money for upstream energy

Challenge: Pension capital wants long-lived returns and distrusts geological risk.
Method: Risk framed in the investor's language, with 50+ opportunities ranked on one scale.
Value: $600M+ raised for investment.

Middle East and UK · health

Architect of a regenerative-medicine ecosystem

Challenge: Regenerative medicine is held back by several bottlenecks at once: regulation, cell supply, clinical evidence, capital and data. No single clinic can clear them.
Method: A multi-layer system designed as one: five linked vehicles, each with its own legal form, regulator, licensing route and phased capital, under a twelve-seat independent council.
Value: A sophisticated, multi-faceted set-up in which every bottleneck has an owner, and each commitment can be made in order, with evidence first.

Anywhere · AI

Weeks of analysis in forty minutes

Challenge: Integrated reservoir studies take specialist teams weeks.
Method: An engineer directing AI, then checking every result by hand.
Value: 36,000 calculation points in one workbook, solved instantly.

Worked with

Twenty years, four regions

A record of outstanding performance inside operators, service companies and investors, and as founder of my own firms.

SLB
Eni
E.ON
RWE
Premier Oil
Cepsa
INEOS
Petroxin
Senergy
Smart Urban Development
Petroxin Oil & Gas

Drag the globe to look around.

Standing

Credentials and published research

Reservoirs Directorate Committee, Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE International)
Honorary Research Fellow, University of Glasgow
Ph.D., Teesside University: an integrated approach to evaluating hydraulic fracturing
Executive MBA, Quantic School of Business and Technology
Presented research at the UK Parliament (SET for Britain, 2015)
Co-developer of a field-development benchmarking methodology for mature assets
Visiting lecturer at UK and Middle East universities

287 citations h-index 12 20 publications

Selected publications

Modeling the risk of commercial failure for hydraulic fracturing projects due to reservoir heterogeneityEnergies, 2018
Robust and flexible hydrocarbon production forecasting considering the heterogeneity impactEnergy & Fuels, 2017
Evaluation of heterogeneity impact on hydraulic fracturing performanceJournal of Petroleum Science and Engineering, 2017
A comprehensive integrated approach to evaluation of hydraulic fracturingDoctoral thesis, Teesside University, 2018
Dynamic matrix-fracture transfer behavior in dual-porosity modelsSPE EUROPEC, 2013
Wearable sensors for learning enhancement in higher educationSensors, 2022
Automatic history matching using response surface modeling with a genetic algorithmPetroleum Science and Technology, 2012

Conversation

Bring me the decision you cannot get comfortable with

Tell me what the decision is and what makes it uncertain. I reply personally.

A first conversation is an hour, in confidence. It suits principals and family offices with capital to place, boards and executives in energy, sponsors of health ventures, and leadership teams planning for AI.